SIDC ursigram

:Issued: 2024 May 16 1258 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40516
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 May 2024, 1258UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 207 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 202 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 198 / AP: 005

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high as a
triple-peaked X2.9 flare was detected during the last 24 hours. It was
emitted from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3685 yesterday between 13:56 and 14:51
UTC. The first two peaks were at M2 and M3 levels, with the X2.9 peak
registering at 14:38 UTC. The same AR produced the other significant event
of the last 24 hours, an M1 today at 08:04 UTC. Since NOAA AR 3685 is
located at the easter solar limb, its magnetic configuration and potential
for flaring cannot be directly estimated. However, based on its current
activity, M-class flares are expected from this AR in the next 24 hours,
with a chance of an X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) seen in SOHO/LASCO
images as launched at 15 May 08:27 UTC is believed to be two separate CME
originating from NOAA Active Regions (AR) 3670 and 3664. The first one is
expected to arrive at Earth's environment on the second half on 17 May. The
second is expected to deliver at most a glancing blow earlier the same day.
A CME that registered in SOHO/LASCO images as emitted at 14 May 18:36 UTC
is associated with the X8.7 flare of 14 May and is expected to deliver a
glancing blow during the second half of 17 May. Due to the expected arrival
of the CME of 15 May at approximately the same time, this glancing blow
might not be apparent.

Solar wind: Solar Wind (SW) conditions are affected by the arrival of the
Corona Mass Ejection (CME) launched on 13 May. The SW speed increased from
400 km/s to 530 km/s today at 05:15 UTC as a result of the arrival. The
total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was at the 3 nT level and has
since increased to 17 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) now
fluctuates between -13 and 14 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi
angle was directed away from the Sun until the event and now varies between
both directions (away and towards the Sun). The effects of the CME are
expected to remain in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were affected by the Coronal Mass
Ejection (CME) arrival of today 05:15 UTC. Globally the conditions
increased from unsettled (NOAA Kp 2- to 3+) to moderate storm (NOAA Kp 6,
between 06:00-09:00 UTC) and minor storm (NOAA Kp 5-, between 09:00-12:00
UTC) levels. Locally they increased from unsettled (K BEL 2-3) to active (K
BEL 4) between 06:00-12:00 UTC. Kp is expected to be at active to minor
storm levels of the next 24 hours. Locally the conditions are expected to
be at active to unsettled.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the
GOES-18 satellite, remained above the 10 pfu alert threshold during the
last 24 hours. It is expected remain at high levels, although it is very
likely to drop below the alert level at some point in the next 24 hours.
Additionally, there is a chance for another proton event from the newly-
numbered NOAA Active Region 3685 in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by the GOES-18 satellite, has now dropped to low levels during the last 24
hours, possibly as a result of the CME arrival of today 05:15 UTC. It is
expected to remain at those levels for the next 24 hours.
The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours,
but it is expected to decrease to low levels in the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 206, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 May 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 216
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 019
AK WINGST              : 013
ESTIMATED AP           : 012
ESTIMATED ISN          : 195, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
15  1356  1406 1410 ////// M2.9          ///3685      III/1IV/1II/1 
15  1410  1417 1420 ////// M3.2          ///3685      III/1IV/1II/1 
15  1420  1438 1451 ////// X2.9          ///3685      III/1IV/1II/1 
16  0750  0804 0810 ////// M1.0          ///3685      VI/2 
END

UMAGF 30503 40516 1004/ 15068 1/019 22232 33322
UMAGF 31523 40516 0000/ 15005 1/013 22233 33333
BT
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